To accept cookies, click continue. This includes personalizing content and advertising. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. I would never vote any other way. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. Please read our comments policy before commenting. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. That is, until this year. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. It will cycle through. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. But thats not the picture I look at. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. We need election reform.. I think it worked out without me.. They run the gamut from. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. In 2020, amid widespread accusations of Democrat cheating, these bellwethers were not even close checking in at a mind-blowing 6%! Notify me of follow-up comments by email. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. It seems that Im having to think about whos lying the least, Myers said. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. I just want Trump in. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. It hurts the older people like me who are on a fixed income.. I quit voting once out of the union.. He is his own worst enemy.. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. Blaine County. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. What you need to know, summarized in one email. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Right now, its horrible. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. Im not even sure what direction were going.. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. . About The Author. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. On . Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. Farming also is huge here. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. I dont listen to the news. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. Two states have announced recounts. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. Required fields are marked *. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. It was easy. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012.